The year 2019 is already well underway and the evolution of the real estate market in Spain is still uncertain.
Will 2019 still be a good year to buy in Spain? Are the prices going up or down?
Many factors make the evolution of the real estate market in Spain still unclear. Indeed, the political instability that there is currently in Spain due to the upcoming elections will certainly influence the Spanish real estate but in what sense?
LocaBarcelona offers you today, a report on the situation of real estate in Spain, and more particularly in Barcelona, at the beginning of the year 2019. This report will be subjective and will be based on different points of view as to the evolution of the Spanish real estate market.
Since 2013, the Spanish property market is constantly rising. The year 2018 ended with an overall increase of 7% (for the whole of Spain on average).
This rise is particularly important in the cities of the Mediterranean coast and especially in Valencia, Malaga or Barcelona. Madrid is also one of the most expensive cities in Spain.
What does the real estate market hold for 2019? Growth, stagnation or slowdown? Different theories are to be explored but it is difficult to get a clear idea of the evolution of the Spanish real estate market.
According to El Pais, we will see a slowdown in real estate in Spain. Demand will be less important and prices will slowly stabilize. There are different causes for this slowdown, including the most important but uncertain, the Spanish economic recovery.
Indeed, this uncertainty is already being felt when looking at estimates of the Spanish growth rate. While it was 2.6% in 2018 (a good average compared to other European countries), the expected growth rate for 2019 would be only 2.2%.
This decrease in the growth rate is due in particular to the decline in tourism in Catalonia (because of the political crisis). Indeed, a certain reluctance on the part of European tourists (French, German or English) was felt.
This political crisis has also affected Catalonia with regard to residential real estate activity (a fall in prices seen in early summer 2018).
This decline in residential real estate activity, however, affected only Catalonia, there is indeed an increase of only 2% in Catalonia while it is 13% for the rest of Spain.
Another cause causing the slowdown in Spanish real estate would be the difficulty for young Spanish to become homeowners. Low wages, precarious employment would be involved, making the acquisition of real estate more complex for young people).
Finally, the increase in interest rates in Spain could affect the real estate market although these rates remain very low for Spain.
In general, 2019 should mark Spain with a 5% increase in the price of real estate, although this increase is subjective because it will depend on where the property is located.
Indeed, this increase will be greater in the coastal cities than for the cities present in the lands.
This increase is explained by the number of foreign tourists who wish to become owners in Spain and in particular in the cities of the Mediterranean coast. Although 2018 recorded its record for the number of goods purchased by foreigners, 2019 is expected to exceed the figures obtained in 2018.
The year 2019 seems to be another good year for the owners because the market is dynamic. There is also still time to buy in Spain, prices remain very attractive. (You can find a house on Valencia for 100 000 €).
Concerning the hypothesis of the stability of real estate growth or are they increasing?
The two hypotheses are equal but they will be different again, depending on the location.
One could see a stability of price transactions in Barcelona (the same is true for rental prices) if the political problem persists. Prices could even fall in some neighborhoods of the Catalan capital. (Wealthier neighborhoods).
However, if the political problem is solved, we could see a rapid catch-up of price activity.
Regarding Madrid, the rise in real estate prices should slow down.
The second hypothesis concerning the continuity of real estate growth would affect other Spanish cities. Demand in coastal cities increasing, prices also.
So is there any real estate demand for 2019?
The real estate demand in Spain in 2019 will still be very important? Prices will continue to increase (compared to 2013) but will vary according to their location.
Stable prices see do decline for Catalonia and especially Barcelona unless a lasting political agreement.